DUK 1Q2018 Earnings (05/10/2018): DUK presents good buying opportunity but after $2.0B equity issue

Reported 1Q18 AEPS of $1.28 vs. our $1.08 and consensus’ $1.14. But, adjusting for good weather DUK would have reported $1.12
DUK completed some $1.65B in new equity for 2018 and expects complete $350MM by yearend, which we’ve modeled
Macro-economic indicators are turning up and demographics gaining; we look for these trends to continue
Investments in renewables and gas-fired generation helps DUK move away from coal and is right move
We believe DUK is on track to meet its 4%-6% AEPS CAGR through 2022 thru development of both organic natural gas projects and acquired natural gas businesses, as well as electric infrastructure projects
We believe another transformative gas-based acquisition is in the making by yearend 2020
We believe DUK presents buying opportunity driven by strong capital investment program, strengthening performance and yield

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DUK 4Q2017 Earnings (2/20/2018): Presents good buying opportunity but after $2.0B equity issue

Reported 4Q17 AEPS of $0.94 vs. our $0.88 and consensus’ $0.92. But, adjusting for good weather DUK would have reported $0.86.
DUK announced it would issue $2B in new equity for 2018, which we’ve modeled.
Introduced 2018 AEPS guidance of $4.55-$4.85, in-line with our expectations.
Extended 4%-6% AEPS CAGR through 2022 as expected and continues to target 8%-10% total shareholder.
Macro-economic indicators are turning up and demographics gaining; we look for these trends to continue.
We believe DUK is on track to meet its 4%-6% AEPS CAGR through 2022 thru development of both organic natural gas projects and acquired natural gas businesses, as well as electric infrastructure projects.
However, we feel DUK would be under pressure until $2.0B equity issue is done. But once complete, we believe DUK presents buying opportunity driven by strong capital investment program, strengthening performance and yield

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2018 Industry Update: Economic growth should favor commodities-driven businesses in 2018

Warmer than normal winter:
Weak gas prices:
However, 4Q2017 and 1Q2018 power gross profit could be better than expectations:
Similarly, we’d expect natural gas infrastructure businesses to perform well for 4Q2017 and 1Q2018:
We expect economic growth to surpass 4% for 2018:
Strong economic performance should lead to strong power sector performance:
Commensurately, we expect natural gas infrastructure businesses to perform well:
Adjusted for seasonality, we expect natural gas prices to creep up throughout 2018 and, given normal weather, we’d expect natural gas prices to average at or just below $3.50 for 2018 with an exit price of some $3.65-$3.75:
Conclusion: Going into 2018, we believe that natural gas prices will stage a moderate recovery, but power margins should do better benefiting from accelerating economic activity. Individually, we continue to like… . However, the real star may be … . Among the utility names, we like … due to their growth prospects. We also look for … to outperform as … .

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DUK 3Q2017: Absent weather effects, DUK is performing to expectations

Reported $1.59 AEPS vs. our $1.76 and consensus’ $1.63. But, adjusting for bad weather including hurricane Irma, DUK would’ve come in at $1.73.
Due to subpar 3Q17 results, we lowered our 4Q17 expectations to fit narrowed AEPS guidance of $4.50-$4.60 from $4.50-$4.70
Macro-economic indicators are turning up and demographics picking-up momentum and now usage/customer is climbing too; we look for these trends to continue
We believe DUK is on track to meet its 4%-6% AEPS CAGR through 2021 thru development of both organic natural gas projects and acquired natural gas businesses, as well as electric infrastructure projects
DUK continues to use regulatory filings to drive growth
We believe another transformative gas-based acquisition is in the making within 12-18 months or by yearend 2018

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