Strong economic activity should drive commodity stocks well into 2019

Warmer than normal summer has led to robust natural gas prices: … we believe that natural gas prices will be… the forward curve would suggest.

· We look for 2018 exit prices in the … and average 2019 price in the range of about …: Assuming …, we’d expect natural gas prices to … by November then move towards the … level by December 2018. We would expect natural gas prices to drift towards the … range by mid-year and break back towards … levels by yearend 2019, averaging about … for the entire year.

· We expect economic growth to … 2H2018: …; we expect … to … at least 2019, if not into YE2020.

· Therefore, we expect 2H2018 and 1H2010 power gross profit … than expectations: … .

· Similarly, we’d expect natural gas infrastructure businesses to … for 2H2018 through 1H2019: … .

· Utility performance is also likely to … economy: … .

· Threat or danger to our thesis is pending …: … .

· We believe LNG is likely … economy and weather: … .

· However, with … economic activity, we’d expect interest rates to …: … .

· Therefore, we believe … underperform …:

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LNG 2Q2018 Earnings (8/9/2018): LNG is fungible so China trade war’s irrelevant; Cheniere ready to rise

Quarterly results are …, while … shadow; good news is that … .
China trade war is obviously and absolutely irrelevant
We continue to fully expect … scale
2018 looks to set up as … future free cash flow.
As expect … quicker than past …, but in-line with our expectations
Performance and … make Cheniere … .

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Auvila Flash LNG (05/22/2018): Positive FID issued on CCL 3; next is SPL 6, which we expect within next 12-months

Cheniere Energy (LNG) issued a positive final investment decision (FID) on its Corpus Christi Liquefaction train 3 (CCL 3)
Under a limited notice to proceed, Bechtel Oil, Gas and Chemicals Inc. began construction work in late 2017

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Auvila Flash on LNG (05/17/2018): LNG offers to buy remaining 7.8% of CQH that it doesn’t own for $28.24/share

As expected, Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) announced today that it is offering to buy the remaining 7.8% of the remaining public float in Cheniere Energy Partners L.P. Holdings LLC (CQH)
LNG is offering 0.45 of LNG for each share of CQH, which translates into an exchange price of some $28.2375/share based on LNG’s closing price on May 16, 2018 of $62.75/share
The transaction is expected to be a tax-free transaction for CQH and LNG shareholders

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LNG 1Q2018 Earnings (05/04/2018): LNG looks to be at inflection point; makes for tempting target

Cheniere reported … 1Q2018 results, but much of … its LNG plants prior to …
Cheniere expects … on CCL3 in next …
We like that Cheniere’s looking at ways to deploy future … ventures
Midship pipeline feels right but … feels wrong
LT, Cheniere faces … problem. We’d like Cheniere to take … and after its 3rd-act.
… global LNG markets are … than … expectations, … with our expectations
We believe … contract will lead to more … contracts and positive …
Cheniere’s … and … fundamentals make Cheniere … for … & …

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LNG 4Q2017 Earnings (02/21/2018): 2018 looks to be strong transition year; upside potential strong

Cheniere all but … investment decision of … in 2018
We like that Cheniere’s looking at ways to …, but not thrilled about …
We believe … will happen in due time
Midship pipeline … feels wrong even though Cheniere says there’s … and FID’s only a matter of … contracts
LT, Cheniere faces … problem. We’d like Cheniere to take … after … and after its 3rd-act
… global LNG markets are …, but we wonder how much of it’s …
We believe … will lead to more … and …. We also look for additional … to boost value.

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LNG (02/09/2018): We believe Cheniere is on cusp of announcing positive FID on CC3

· Following the … contract for XXMM tonnes per annum (MMTPA) of LNG, which was … , LNG signed … with … for XXMMTPA

· Corpus Christi Liquefaction #3 … has … for about XXMMTPA or about XXXMM MMBTU …

· Combined with the … and the … CCL3 …, which should be enough … with … .

· Therefore, we expect … to be announced …, quite possibly before …

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Auvila Flash: Cheniere signs a 15-year LNG Purchase and Sales Agreement

As expected, Cheniere Energy Marketing (Cheniere Marketing) signed a … LNG export on a … Trafigura Pte Ltd. (Trafigura). Trafigura is a Singaporean company engaged in marketing and trading of commodities and invests in infrastructure projects. The contract is expected to commence … . The contract is indexed … plus ….
While Cheniere did not …, given that it …, we would assume that … as the backbone of the contract
This is not to say that only … . In reality, we believe that Cheniere Marketing would … , including LNG … sources.
Regardless, we believe that … positive cash flow investment
… mid-20XX. Therefore, until then, we’d expect … as well as …
We would expect Cheniere … to … or about …

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2018 Industry Update: Economic growth should favor commodities-driven businesses in 2018

Warmer than normal winter:
Weak gas prices:
However, 4Q2017 and 1Q2018 power gross profit could be …:
Similarly, we’d expect natural gas infrastructure businesses to perform … :
We expect economic growth to surpass …:
Strong economic performance should lead to …:
Commensurately, we expect natural gas infrastructure businesses to perform well:
Adjusted for seasonality, we expect natural gas prices to … and, given normal weather, we’d expect natural gas prices to … for 2018 with an exit price of some …:

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GOP Tax Bill is win for utilities, power, infrastructure, and customers

GOP Tax Bill (GOPTB) looks to be … industries and companies in our coverage universe
Key aspects of GOPTB that affect our coverage industries and companies include, but not limited to:
21% corporate tax rate would be expected to reduce deferred income tax liability by some XX%
Interest expense deductibility capped at XX% of EBITDA for 2018-2021 and to XX% of EBIT after
100% investment deduction, except for utilities that would … interest
Preservation of existing … and …
Repatriation of profits tax at XX% for … and XX% for …
Base-erosion & Anti-abuse Tax (BEAT) …: If payments to foreign affiliates are … then BEAT is imposed. We … to companies that we cover, given … would be allowed to …
AES Corp. faces … , we …; AES has …:
NRG Energy …:
Exelon Corp. …:
Cheniere Energy, oddly enough, …:
BKH, CNP, DUK, EIX, PCG, PNM, SRE should … but may be able to use …:

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