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Auvila Research Consulting LLC
We are a Truly Independent and Opinionated Securities Research Firm that SERVES its Clients with Passion, Integrity, and Excellence
  • About Us
  • Our Philosophy
  • Industry Research
    • 2016 Industry Research
      • The Myriad of Changes Are not Challenges, but Rather Opportunities
      • Supreme Court Stays Implementation of the Clean Power Plan; a New Plan May Already Be in the Works
      • Somewhat surprise BRXIT vote has little long-term consequences
      • Natural gas: Tailwind; Interest rate: Mild headwind; Election: Tornado
      • What we think Trump Presidency means; energy industry give & take
      • Corp. tax cut from 35% to 15% leads to 20%-30% upside; 2017 Outlook
    • 2017 Industry Research
      • Barring abnormal weather, we expect stronger commodity prices
      • EIX, SRE, PCG: Preliminary Decision from ALJ on CA IOU’s Cost of Capital Proceeding is Largely in Tact with Two Relatively Benign Changes to the Settlement
      • Power Company Privatization will Lead to Unintended Consequences
      • US Withdrawal from Paris Accord may be Ideologically Meaningful, but Practically Meaningless
      • Our Expectations for 2H2017 is Better than would be Expected
      • The Logic NY Fed Court Decision to Uphold ZECs is Spurious
      • As expected, the EPA repealed the Clean Power Plan (CPP); asks industry to help write a new regulation
    • 2018 Industry Research
      • Auvila Flash (05/30/2018): FERC/DOJ support IL nuclear subsidies; Favor EXC in overall long IPP strategy
      • Strong economic activity should drive commodity stocks well into 2019
    • 2019 Industry Research
    • 2020 Industry Research
  • Infrastructure
    • CenterPoint Energy (CNP)
      • 2016 CNP Research
        • CNP Initiation Report
        • CNP 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • CNP 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • REIT tax advantage is an illusion
        • CNP 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • CNP: Hunt withdraws from Oncor bid; opportunity for CNP
        • CNP Acquisition of Atmos Energy Marketing (AEM) is value-add by some $3.50/share given unit acquisition cost of $0.10/MCF/Year
        • CNP 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • CNP 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
        • CNP 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 CNP Research
        • CNP 2017 AEPS Guidance range of $1.25-$1.33 in-line with our expectations
        • CNP 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • CNP 2Q2017 Earnings: Fate of ENBL decided, CNP looks forward to utility strength
        • CNP 3Q2017: Predictability, stability, reliability, and flexibility, the CNP way
        • CNP 4Q2017 Earnings (02/22/2018): We feel CNP is conservative; ENBL to be sold in pieces; upside coming
      • 2018 CNP Research
        • CNP 1Q2018 Earnings (05/03/2018): We feel CNP is conservative; ENBL is sticky wicket; Vectren deal is good
        • CNP buys Vectren (04/24/2018): More to deal than first glance; We like this deal; CNP attractive target
        • Auvila Flash on CNP (04/23/2018): Even at 60% equity financing, VVC acquisition looks accretive, preliminarily
        • CNP 2Q2018 Earnings (8/3/2018): Vectren deal continues to be the focus; no action on ENBL, strange
        • CNP (11/8/2018): Little else matters until Vectren closes 1Q19; ENBL internal spin done
      • 2019 CNP Research
      • 2020 CNP Research
    • Cheniere Energy (LNG)
      • 2016 LNG Research
        • LNG Initiation Report
        • LNG 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • LNG 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • Appointment of Jack Fusco to CEO is likely good for shareholder value
        • LNG 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • Cheniere Energy Inc. to rollup Cheniere Energy Holdings (CQH)
        • LNG 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • LNG 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
        • LNG 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 LNG Research
        • LNG 2017 Analyst Day Note
        • LNG 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • LNG 2Q2017 Earnings: On the verge of breakout; guidance raised; raising ST-Target to $65/sh
        • LNG 3Q2017: 2018 looks to be breakout year, but depends on commercialization
        • Flash: LNG Signals positive FID for CCL3 in 1H2018 with Bechtel EPC contract
        • LNG 4Q2017 Earnings (02/21/2018): 2018 looks to be strong transition year; upside potential strong
      • 2018 LNG Research
        • LNG (02/09/2018): We believe Cheniere is on cusp of announcing positive FID on CC3
        • LNG 1Q2018 Earnings (05/04/2018): LNG looks to be at inflection point; makes for tempting target
        • Auvila Flash on LNG (05/17/2018): LNG offers to buy remaining 7.8% of CQH that it doesn’t own for $28.24/share
        • Auvila Flash LNG (05/22/2018): Positive FID issued on CCL 3; next is SPL 6, which we expect within next 12-months
        • LNG 2Q2018 Earnings (8/9/2018): LNG is fungible so China trade war’s irrelevant; Cheniere ready to rise
        • LNG (11/8/2018): Cheniere highly undervalued relative to potential
      • 2019 LNG Research
      • 2020 LNG Research
    • Sempra Energy (SRE)
      • 2016 SRE Research
        • SRE Initiation Report
        • SRE 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • SRE: Selling 25% remaining interest in REX is correct, despite loss
        • SRE: Signals minor shift in strategy w/sale of EnergySouth Inc.
        • SRE 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • SRE 2016 Strategic Presentation
        • SRE 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • SRE 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • SRE 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
        • SRE 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 SRE Research
        • SRE 2017 Analyst Day
        • SRE 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • SRE 2Q2017 Earnings: Cameron delay: Big Whoop; IEnova continues to impress; more upside
        • SRE: We like strategic direction of Oncor acquisition; not sure of financing
        • SRE: Oncor acquisition is strategically astute and appears financially sound
        • SRE: Details on financing given; Oncor deal looks to remain on track for 1H18 close
        • SRE’s New Strategy Takes Shape with Oncor; New Projects Increase NIV
        • SRE 4Q2017 Earnings (02/27/2018): Oncor ready to close by 1Q18 end; Future prospects bright
      • 2018 SRE Research
        • SRE 1Q2018 Earnings (05/07/2018): With Oncor closed, we look for flourishing Twin Towers strategy
        • Auvila Flash SRE (03/07/2018): SRE 2018E AEPS Guidance — We made a mistake in our assumption
        • Auvila Flash on SRE (03/12/2018): The magic continues at Sempra Energy (SRE)
        • Auvila Flash on SRE (06/11/2018): If reported correctly, Elliott Management and Bluescape Energy Partners proposed restructuring is off-target, in our opinion
        • Auvila Quick Note (SRE; 6/28/2018): SRE Analyst Day: If SRE didn’t deliver KO blow to AI then it’s a TKO win
        • SRE 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Execution is back on menu but activist investor interference continues
        • SRE (10/18/2018): Oncor to buy InfraREIT & SRE to buy Sharyland; good for investors
        • SRE (11/7/2018): As Cameron comes on-line LNG capex to accelerate; Stock to follow
      • 2019 SRE Research
      • 2020 SRE Research
  • Power
    • AES Corp. (AES)
      • 2016 AES Research
        • AES Initiation Report
        • AES 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • AES Bulgaria Settlement
        • AES 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • AES Sells Sul in Brazil
        • AES 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • AES 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • AES 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 AES Research
        • AES 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • AES 2Q2017 Earnings: We feel the upside coming, but now we have to see it
        • AES 3Q2017: We expect strengthening global economy to provide strong tailwind
        • AES 4Q2017 Earnings (02/27/2018): 2018 AEPS guidance surprises but LT guidance conservative in our view
      • 2018 AES Research
        • AES 1Q2018 Earnings (05/08/2018): Strategy & tactics are clear but vision’s cloudy; regardless undervalued
        • AES 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Clean, lean, mean and going green! Clear visibility to upside! Finally!
        • AES (11/6/2018): Upside clarity and momentum continues; strategy set; no more coal
      • 2019 AES Research
      • 2020 AES Research
    • Calpine Corp. (CPN)
      • 2016 CPN Research
        • CPN Initiation Report
        • CPN 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • CPN 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • CPN 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • CPN Sells Mankato CCGT
        • CPN Buys Noble Americas Energy Solutions, a Retail Operation
        • CPN 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • CPN 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 CPN Research
        • CPN 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • CPN 2Q2017 Earnings Note: We believe CPN is all but privatized; sticking point would be SB100
        • As predicted CPN is going private, but at a disappointing price
        • We’re sad CPN got taken out at basement price; A sad last goodbye
      • 2018 CPN Research
        • Auvila Flash on CPN (03/08/2018): Energy Transfer Partners completes acquisition of CPN for a pithy $15.25/share
      • 2019 CPN Research
      • 2020 CPN Research
    • Exelon Corp. (EXC)
      • 2016 EXC Research
        • EXC Initiation Report
        • EXC 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • EXC 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • EXC 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • EXC 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • EXC 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 EXC Research
        • EXC 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • EXC 2Q2017 Earnings Note: Regulatory filings continue; strong execution; valuation compelling
        • EXC 3Q2017: Upside from FERC redesign of power pricing may boost EXC by 36%
        • EXC 4Q2017 Earnings (02/07/2018): We agree with management’s valuation frustration
      • 2018 EXC Research
        • EXC 1Q2018 Earnings (05/02/2018): EXC on pace to beat guidance and benefit from accelerating economy
        • Auvila Flash (05/30/2018): FERC/DOJ support IL nuclear subsidies; Favor EXC in overall long IPP strategy
        • EXC 2Q2018 Earnings (8/2/2018): Strong quarter; expect upward guidance revision and strong finish
        • EXC (11/1/2018): Higher guidance & hedge strategy change expectations confirmed
      • 2019 EXC Research
      • 2020 EXC Research
    • NRG Energy (NRG)
      • 2016 NRG Research
        • NRG Initiation Report
        • NRG 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • NRG 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • NRG 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • NRG 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • NRG 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
        • NRG 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 NRG Research
        • NRG 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • NRG Poised to transform itself from a 500lbs pig into a 100lbs ballerina
        • We like the Big, Bold strokes that NRG is using to repaint its canvas
        • NRG 2Q2017 Earnings: Decks are cleared, execution at forefront; waiting for results to rise-up
        • NRG 3Q2017: As economy rises-up from ashes, feels like NRG’s poised to take flight
        • NRG (02/07/2018): ~$9.8B asset sales cements NRG’s future; we like what NRG is doing
      • 2018 NRG Research
        • NRG 4Q2017 Earnings (03/01/2018): NRG decides to waste some $100MM in shareholder capital
        • NRG 1Q2018 Earnings (05/03/2018): NRG poised to take off but we’d wait for end of $1B share buyback
        • Auvila Flash NRG (05/21/2018): NRG to issue $500MM of convertible senior notes due 2048 and conduct an accelerated share repurchase (ASR)
        • NRG 2Q2018 Earnings (8/2/2018): Blowout quarter, but we’re still waiting for $1B share buyback to end
        • NRG (11/8/2018): Share buyback increases $0.5B to $1.5B: Bad; Operations: Great
      • 2019 NRG Research
      • 2020 NRG Research
  • Utilities
    • Black Hills Corp. (BKH)
      • 2016 BKH Research
        • BKH Initiation Report
        • BKH 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • BKH 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • BKH’s withdrawal of cost of service gas application is not a surprise
        • BKH 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • BKH 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • BKH 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 BKH Research
        • BKH 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • BKH 2Q2017 Earnings: Plans for cost of service gas falls thru but there’s a silver lining
        • BKH Future Bright; Capex Spending Accelerating; E&P Decision Coming
        • BKH 3Q2017: Little matters until we know how much capital is raised from E&P sale
        • BKH 4Q2017 Earnings (02/02/2018): E&P sale was very disappointing; downgrading forward expectations
      • 2018 BKH Research
        • BKH 1Q2018 Earnings (05/04/2018): Weather induced performance doesn’t change our thesis
        • BKH 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Guidance seems conservative; regulatory filings continue
        • BKH (11/6/2018): ST looks dim; MT-LT potential good; steady execution; CEO change
      • 2019 BKH Research
      • 2020 BKH Research
    • Duke Energy (DUK)
      • 2016 DUK Research
        • DUK Initiation Report
        • DUK 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • DUK 2016 CFO Dinner
        • DUK 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • DUK 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • DUK: Control of SE Starts with Closing of PNG acquisition; Expect Far More on the Gas Side Including Another Acquisition within 2-3 Years
        • DUK sells its international assets for $2.4B
        • DUK 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • DUK 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 DUK Research
        • DUK 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • DUK 2Q2017 Earnings: DUK isn’t resting on its laurels but working hard to get next gold medal
        • DUK 3Q2017: Absent weather effects, DUK is performing to expectations
        • DUK 4Q2017 Earnings (2/20/2018): Presents good buying opportunity but after $2.0B equity issue
      • 2018 DUK Research
        • DUK 2Q2018 Earnings (8/2/2018): Weak quarter doesn’t translate; good, steady growth story intact
        • DUK 1Q2018 Earnings (05/10/2018): DUK presents good buying opportunity but after $2.0B equity issue
        • DUK (11/2/2018): Strong 3Q18 leads to higher guidance; attractive growth story intact
      • 2019 DUK Research
      • 2020 DUK Research
    • Edison International (EIX)
      • 2016 EIX Research
        • EIX Initiation Report
        • EIX 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • EIX 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • EIX: The Scope of the Reopening of the SONGS Settlement is Narrow
        • EIX 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • EIX 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • EIX 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 EIX Research
        • EIX: Edison Energy Services (EES): Molehill trying to become an anthill with potential to become a hillock; we like approach but endgame’s murky
        • EIX 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • EIX 2Q2017 Earnings Note: EIX Quarter was disappointing but raising guidance in show of confidence
        • EIX 3Q2017: Strong 3Q17 performance lifts guidance; Focus on 2018 GRC
        • EIX 4Q2017 Earnings (02/22/2018): Focus on 2018 GRC; EIX doesn’t seem to be suffering from PCG ills
      • 2018 EIX Research
        • Auvila Flash (EIX: 01/31/2018): Son Onfre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) Revised Settlement Agreement (RSA)
        • EIX 1Q2018 Earnings (05/01/2018): Focus on 2018 GRC; we don’t expect ungainly impact from wildfires
        • EIX 2Q2018 Earnings (7/26/2018): 2018 GRC still focus; wildfire liabilities not particular concern
        • EIX (10/30/2018): 2018 GRC still focus; wildfire liabilities not concern; future looks bright
      • 2019 EIX Research
      • 2020 EIX Research
    • PNM Resources (PNM)
      • 2016 PNM Research
        • PNM Initiation Report
        • PNM 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • PNM: Changing estimates to better account for rate case
        • PNM 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • PNM 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • PNM rate case decision may be postponed past legal timeline but it may be a good thing
        • PNM asks for rate decision instead of delay
        • PNM: Final PRC decision has pluses and minus, but also some weird things
        • PNM 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • PNM Analyst Day (December 2016)
        • PNM 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
        • PNM 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 PNM Research
        • PNM 2017 IRP Quick Note
        • PNM 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • PNM 2017 GRC Settlement Agreement
        • PNM Rate Case Settlement Takes an Unexpected but Fair Turn
        • PNM 2018 GRC Settlement Agreement is Fair-Minded; We Look for Approval
        • PNM 2Q2017 Earnings Note: PNM performed as expected; now it’s up to regulatory matters
        • PNM 3Q2017: PNM beat but keeping guidance unchanged; this is overly conservative
        • PNM 3Q2017: PNM beat but keeping guidance unchanged; this is overly conservative
        • PNM: Recommended Decision (RD) creates unwanted drama; likely leads to May 2017 settlement agreement becoming effective
        • PNM: 2018-2019 Guidance was in-line with expectations, but upside potential good
        • PNM: 2018 GRC Final Decision (FD) have gives and takes but could be better
        • PNM 4Q2017 Earnings (02/27/2018): Outlook improves but still conservative; 2H18 outperformance likely
      • 2018 PNM Research
        • PNM: NMPRC’s periodic anti-shareholder decisions are unproductive but creates buying opportunity, in our opinion
        • PNM 1Q2018 Earnings (04/27/2018): 1Q2018 provides no additional insights and we continue to be positive
        • PNM 2Q2018 Earnings (7/31/2018): In-line with our expectations 2018/2019 AEPS guidance raised
        • PNM (8/1/2018): Updated estimates; no material changes to our thesis
        • PNM (11/6/2018): Upside potential alluring; 2018 AEPS guidance raised
      • 2019 PNM Research
      • 2020 PNM Research
    • PG&E Corp. (PCG)
      • 2016 PCG Research
        • PCG Initiation Report
        • PCG 4Q2015 Earnings Note
        • PCG 1Q2016 Earnings Note
        • PCG 2015 GT&S Preliminary Decision
        • PCG 2015 GT&S Final Decision
        • PCG 2Q2016 Earnings Note
        • PCG Revised Estimates: July 29, 2017
        • PCG 3Q2016 Earnings Note
        • PCG 4Q2016 Earnings Note
      • 2017 PCG Research
        • PCG 1Q2017 Earnings Note
        • PCG 2017 GRC Final Decision
        • PCG 2Q2017 Earnings Note: PCG’s Brilliantly boring quarter and strong operational execution bodes well
        • PCG 3Q2017: After great quarter is PCG bad luck or have bad karma or bad mgmt.?
        • PCG: ALJ PD on Diablo Canyon seems a bit capricious, so room for upside
        • FLASH PCG: PG&E Suspends common and preferred dividends due to wildfires
        • PCG 4Q2017 Earnings (02/09/2018): At some point PCG presents great buying opportunity, in our view
      • 2018 PCG Research
        • PCG 1Q2018 Earnings (05/03/2018): Potential wildfire costs continue to pressure PCG but upside’s alluring
        • Auvila Flash PCG (05/29/2018): PCG looks to be on the hook for 2017 CA Wildfires
        • Auvila Flash PCG (06/11/2018): CalFire finds PG&E equipment involved in additional October 2017 fires; PG&E to take “significant” reserves
        • PCG 2Q2018 Earnings (7/26/2018): Wildfires continue to cloud and upside still alluring but months away
        • PCG (11/5/2018): Wildfire crisis largely over; time to bottom fish; raise target to $69
      • 2019 PCG Research
      • 2020 PCG Research
  • Economic
    • Only short-sighted, ignorant, uneducated or unthinking people would assume that share buybacks and dividends won’t help the economy!
    • Capitalism — i.e., “trickle-down” economics — works, and works very, very well!
  • Philosophical
    • Letter to FERC outlining our thoughts on how to redesign wholesale power market pricing mechanism
  • Investments
    • Share buybacks do not create value and the notion that a company can invest in its own stock is nonsense
    • Beginner Investors’ Guide to Good, Prudent, and Appropriate Investing
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  • Disclosures and Disclaimers
  • Privacy Policy
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Recent Posts

  • LNG (11/8/2018): Cheniere highly undervalued relative to potential November 15, 2018
  • BKH (11/6/2018): ST looks dim; MT-LT potential good; steady execution; CEO change November 15, 2018
  • CNP (11/8/2018): Little else matters until Vectren closes 1Q19; ENBL internal spin done November 15, 2018
  • SRE (11/7/2018): As Cameron comes on-line LNG capex to accelerate; Stock to follow November 15, 2018
  • NRG (11/8/2018): Share buyback increases $0.5B to $1.5B: Bad; Operations: Great November 15, 2018
  • PNM (11/6/2018): Upside potential alluring; 2018 AEPS guidance raised November 15, 2018
  • AES (11/6/2018): Upside clarity and momentum continues; strategy set; no more coal November 15, 2018
  • PCG (11/5/2018): Wildfire crisis largely over; time to bottom fish; raise target to $69 November 15, 2018
  • DUK (11/2/2018): Strong 3Q18 leads to higher guidance; attractive growth story intact November 15, 2018
  • EXC (11/1/2018): Higher guidance & hedge strategy change expectations confirmed November 15, 2018
  • EIX (10/30/2018): 2018 GRC still focus; wildfire liabilities not concern; future looks bright November 15, 2018
  • SRE (10/18/2018): Oncor to buy InfraREIT & SRE to buy Sharyland; good for investors October 18, 2018
  • Beginner Investors’ Guide to Good, Prudent, and Appropriate Investing August 18, 2018
  • Strong economic activity should drive commodity stocks well into 2019 August 14, 2018
  • LNG 2Q2018 Earnings (8/9/2018): LNG is fungible so China trade war’s irrelevant; Cheniere ready to rise August 10, 2018
  • BKH 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Guidance seems conservative; regulatory filings continue August 10, 2018
  • AES 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Clean, lean, mean and going green! Clear visibility to upside! Finally! August 10, 2018
  • SRE 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Execution is back on menu but activist investor interference continues August 10, 2018
  • CNP 2Q2018 Earnings (8/3/2018): Vectren deal continues to be the focus; no action on ENBL, strange August 7, 2018
  • EXC 2Q2018 Earnings (8/2/2018): Strong quarter; expect upward guidance revision and strong finish August 7, 2018

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