We’re sad CPN got taken out at basement price; A sad last goodbye

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Auvila_CPN_QN_2017_3Q_Earnings_2017_11_01

Excerpt:

Market Price (11/1/2017): $15.00/share; ST-Target: $15.00/share; NIV: $48/share

  • CPN looks to be on track to be privatized by 1Q2018 end
  • CPN is getting taken out at $15.25/share, well below our NIV of some $48/share and ST-Target of $34/share
  • We would expect an IPO of CPN once the FERC restructures the wholesale power market pricing mechanism to not only properly incorporate the true marginal pricing of renewable generation, but also to properly value ALL ancillary services and reliability and resiliency features
  • CPN reported 3Q2017 AEPS of some $0.63 and $669MM in AEBITDA vs. our estimate of $0.61 in AEPS and $727MM in AEBITDA, while consensus estimated AEPS at about $0.65
  • As of this note, while we will continue to monitor the company, we will no longer be publishing on CPN unless the privatization is reversed or another bid is accepted

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