DUK 3Q2017: Absent weather effects, DUK is performing to expectations

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Auvila_DUK_Note_2017_3Q_Earnings_2017_11_03

Excerpt:

Market Price (11/3/2017): $88.52/share; ST-Target: $110/share; NIV: $161/share

  • Reported $1.59 AEPS vs. our $1.76 and consensus’ $1.63. But, adjusting for bad weather including hurricane Irma, DUK would’ve come in at $1.73.
  • Due to subpar 3Q17 results, we lowered our 4Q17 expectations to fit narrowed AEPS guidance of $4.50-$4.60 from $4.50-$4.70
  • Macro-economic indicators are turning up and demographics picking-up momentum and now usage/customer is climbing too; we look for these trends to continue
  • We believe DUK is on track to meet its 4%-6% AEPS CAGR through 2021 thru development of both organic natural gas projects and acquired natural gas businesses, as well as electric infrastructure projects
  • DUK continues to use regulatory filings to drive growth
  • We believe another transformative gas-based acquisition is in the making within 12-18 months or by yearend 2018

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