CNP 3Q2017: Predictability, stability, reliability, and flexibility, the CNP way

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Auvila_CNP_Note_2017_3Q_Earnings_2017_11_03

Excerpt:

Market Price (11/3/2017): $/share; ST-Target: $/share; NIV: $/share

  • Raising ST-Target to $39 from $36 and NIV/share to $58 from $55 on 3Q2017 results and 2017 guidance
  • CNP believes it will finish year at or around high-end of its guidance, which reaffirms our belief CNP will perform at higher end of 2017E AEPS guidance, if not above, and we concur with CNP that it will perform at higher end or even above its targeted 4%-6% CAGR in AEPS thru 2018
  • We agree with Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) divestiture and chosen sale method seems to be for stock, although we’d prefer cash and redeployment into a transformative acquisition even with the tax burden given bargain basement asset prices
  • However, stock transaction for ENBL tells us CNP prefers to continuously invest in CNP and buyer’s stock would be used as equity financing for organic expansion
  • We maintain CNP is best owner of Oncor, but now CNP has BIG target on its back
  • Wouldn’t surprise us if CNP delved back into pipelines, but strictly pipelines only
  • We like new tranny project into Freeport, TX, but await approval and more details before modeling.

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