LNG 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note

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Auvila_LNG_QN_2016_4Q_Earnings_02_28

Excerpt:

Market Price (2/28/2017): $48.05/share; ST-Target: $44/share; NIV: $163/share

2017 is the year that Cheniere transforms into an operating company

Note: Please note that due to 5 companies (NRG, CNP, PNM, LNG, SRE) reporting on one day, we will be writing Quick Notes for all of the companies reporting today followed by full notes later in the week

  • This is the year in which we believe that Cheniere transforms into an operating company from a development company, in our opinion
  • While we do not expect Cheniere to be FCF positive until 2020 or so, it will be the first full year of liquefaction operations at Sabine Pass (SPL) on trains 1 and 2 (at least for most of the year) with trains 3 and 4 expected to achieve full operations this year
    • SPL Train 3: Expected to be completed by 1Q2017
    • SPL Train 4: Expected to be completed by 2H2017
    • SPL Train 5: Expected to be completed by 3Q2019
    • Corpus Christi (CCL) train 1: Expected to be completed by 1Q2019
    • CCL train 2: Expected to be completed by 2Q2019
  • We continue to believe that SPL train 6 and CCL train 3 will be completed
  • As expected, LNG demand appears to be growing faster than market expectations with 6% demand growth in 2016

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