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Auvila Research Consulting LLC
We are a Truly Independent and Opinionated Securities Research Firm that SERVES its Clients with Passion, Integrity, and Excellence
About Us
Our Philosophy
Industry Research
2016 Industry Research
The Myriad of Changes Are not Challenges, but Rather Opportunities
Supreme Court Stays Implementation of the Clean Power Plan; a New Plan May Already Be in the Works
Somewhat surprise BRXIT vote has little long-term consequences
Natural gas: Tailwind; Interest rate: Mild headwind; Election: Tornado
What we think Trump Presidency means; energy industry give & take
Corp. tax cut from 35% to 15% leads to 20%-30% upside; 2017 Outlook
2017 Industry Research
Barring abnormal weather, we expect stronger commodity prices
EIX, SRE, PCG: Preliminary Decision from ALJ on CA IOU’s Cost of Capital Proceeding is Largely in Tact with Two Relatively Benign Changes to the Settlement
Power Company Privatization will Lead to Unintended Consequences
US Withdrawal from Paris Accord may be Ideologically Meaningful, but Practically Meaningless
Our Expectations for 2H2017 is Better than would be Expected
The Logic NY Fed Court Decision to Uphold ZECs is Spurious
As expected, the EPA repealed the Clean Power Plan (CPP); asks industry to help write a new regulation
2018 Industry Research
Auvila Flash (05/30/2018): FERC/DOJ support IL nuclear subsidies; Favor EXC in overall long IPP strategy
Strong economic activity should drive commodity stocks well into 2019
2019 Industry Research
2020 Industry Research
Infrastructure
CenterPoint Energy (CNP)
2016 CNP Research
CNP Initiation Report
CNP 4Q2015 Earnings Note
CNP 1Q2016 Earnings Note
REIT tax advantage is an illusion
CNP 2Q2016 Earnings Note
CNP: Hunt withdraws from Oncor bid; opportunity for CNP
CNP Acquisition of Atmos Energy Marketing (AEM) is value-add by some $3.50/share given unit acquisition cost of $0.10/MCF/Year
CNP 3Q2016 Earnings Note
CNP 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
CNP 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 CNP Research
CNP 2017 AEPS Guidance range of $1.25-$1.33 in-line with our expectations
CNP 1Q2017 Earnings Note
CNP 2Q2017 Earnings: Fate of ENBL decided, CNP looks forward to utility strength
CNP 3Q2017: Predictability, stability, reliability, and flexibility, the CNP way
CNP 4Q2017 Earnings (02/22/2018): We feel CNP is conservative; ENBL to be sold in pieces; upside coming
2018 CNP Research
CNP 1Q2018 Earnings (05/03/2018): We feel CNP is conservative; ENBL is sticky wicket; Vectren deal is good
CNP buys Vectren (04/24/2018): More to deal than first glance; We like this deal; CNP attractive target
Auvila Flash on CNP (04/23/2018): Even at 60% equity financing, VVC acquisition looks accretive, preliminarily
CNP 2Q2018 Earnings (8/3/2018): Vectren deal continues to be the focus; no action on ENBL, strange
2019 CNP Research
2020 CNP Research
Cheniere Energy (LNG)
2016 LNG Research
LNG Initiation Report
LNG 4Q2015 Earnings Note
LNG 1Q2016 Earnings Note
Appointment of Jack Fusco to CEO is likely good for shareholder value
LNG 2Q2016 Earnings Note
Cheniere Energy Inc. to rollup Cheniere Energy Holdings (CQH)
LNG 3Q2016 Earnings Note
LNG 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
LNG 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 LNG Research
LNG 2017 Analyst Day Note
LNG 1Q2017 Earnings Note
LNG 2Q2017 Earnings: On the verge of breakout; guidance raised; raising ST-Target to $65/sh
LNG 3Q2017: 2018 looks to be breakout year, but depends on commercialization
Flash: LNG Signals positive FID for CCL3 in 1H2018 with Bechtel EPC contract
LNG 4Q2017 Earnings (02/21/2018): 2018 looks to be strong transition year; upside potential strong
2018 LNG Research
LNG (02/09/2018): We believe Cheniere is on cusp of announcing positive FID on CC3
LNG 1Q2018 Earnings (05/04/2018): LNG looks to be at inflection point; makes for tempting target
Auvila Flash on LNG (05/17/2018): LNG offers to buy remaining 7.8% of CQH that it doesn’t own for $28.24/share
Auvila Flash LNG (05/22/2018): Positive FID issued on CCL 3; next is SPL 6, which we expect within next 12-months
LNG 2Q2018 Earnings (8/9/2018): LNG is fungible so China trade war’s irrelevant; Cheniere ready to rise
2019 LNG Research
2020 LNG Research
Sempra Energy (SRE)
2016 SRE Research
SRE Initiation Report
SRE 4Q2015 Earnings Note
SRE: Selling 25% remaining interest in REX is correct, despite loss
SRE: Signals minor shift in strategy w/sale of EnergySouth Inc.
SRE 1Q2016 Earnings Note
SRE 2016 Strategic Presentation
SRE 2Q2016 Earnings Note
SRE 3Q2016 Earnings Note
SRE 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
SRE 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 SRE Research
SRE 2017 Analyst Day
SRE 1Q2017 Earnings Note
SRE 2Q2017 Earnings: Cameron delay: Big Whoop; IEnova continues to impress; more upside
SRE: We like strategic direction of Oncor acquisition; not sure of financing
SRE: Oncor acquisition is strategically astute and appears financially sound
SRE: Details on financing given; Oncor deal looks to remain on track for 1H18 close
SRE’s New Strategy Takes Shape with Oncor; New Projects Increase NIV
SRE 4Q2017 Earnings (02/27/2018): Oncor ready to close by 1Q18 end; Future prospects bright
2018 SRE Research
SRE 1Q2018 Earnings (05/07/2018): With Oncor closed, we look for flourishing Twin Towers strategy
Auvila Flash SRE (03/07/2018): SRE 2018E AEPS Guidance — We made a mistake in our assumption
Auvila Flash on SRE (03/12/2018): The magic continues at Sempra Energy (SRE)
Auvila Flash on SRE (06/11/2018): If reported correctly, Elliott Management and Bluescape Energy Partners proposed restructuring is off-target, in our opinion
Auvila Quick Note (SRE; 6/28/2018): SRE Analyst Day: If SRE didn’t deliver KO blow to AI then it’s a TKO win
SRE 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Execution is back on menu but activist investor interference continues
2019 SRE Research
2020 SRE Research
Power
AES Corp. (AES)
2016 AES Research
AES Initiation Report
AES 4Q2015 Earnings Note
AES Bulgaria Settlement
AES 1Q2016 Earnings Note
AES Sells Sul in Brazil
AES 2Q2016 Earnings Note
AES 3Q2016 Earnings Note
AES 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 AES Research
AES 1Q2017 Earnings Note
AES 2Q2017 Earnings: We feel the upside coming, but now we have to see it
AES 3Q2017: We expect strengthening global economy to provide strong tailwind
AES 4Q2017 Earnings (02/27/2018): 2018 AEPS guidance surprises but LT guidance conservative in our view
2018 AES Research
AES 1Q2018 Earnings (05/08/2018): Strategy & tactics are clear but vision’s cloudy; regardless undervalued
AES 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Clean, lean, mean and going green! Clear visibility to upside! Finally!
2019 AES Research
2020 AES Research
Calpine Corp. (CPN)
2016 CPN Research
CPN Initiation Report
CPN 4Q2015 Earnings Note
CPN 1Q2016 Earnings Note
CPN 2Q2016 Earnings Note
CPN Sells Mankato CCGT
CPN Buys Noble Americas Energy Solutions, a Retail Operation
CPN 3Q2016 Earnings Note
CPN 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 CPN Research
CPN 1Q2017 Earnings Note
CPN 2Q2017 Earnings Note: We believe CPN is all but privatized; sticking point would be SB100
As predicted CPN is going private, but at a disappointing price
We’re sad CPN got taken out at basement price; A sad last goodbye
2018 CPN Research
Auvila Flash on CPN (03/08/2018): Energy Transfer Partners completes acquisition of CPN for a pithy $15.25/share
2019 CPN Research
2020 CPN Research
Exelon Corp. (EXC)
2016 EXC Research
EXC Initiation Report
EXC 4Q2015 Earnings Note
EXC 1Q2016 Earnings Note
EXC 2Q2016 Earnings Note
EXC 3Q2016 Earnings Note
EXC 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 EXC Research
EXC 1Q2017 Earnings Note
EXC 2Q2017 Earnings Note: Regulatory filings continue; strong execution; valuation compelling
EXC 3Q2017: Upside from FERC redesign of power pricing may boost EXC by 36%
EXC 4Q2017 Earnings (02/07/2018): We agree with management’s valuation frustration
2018 EXC Research
EXC 1Q2018 Earnings (05/02/2018): EXC on pace to beat guidance and benefit from accelerating economy
Auvila Flash (05/30/2018): FERC/DOJ support IL nuclear subsidies; Favor EXC in overall long IPP strategy
EXC 2Q2018 Earnings (8/2/2018): Strong quarter; expect upward guidance revision and strong finish
2019 EXC Research
2020 EXC Research
NRG Energy (NRG)
2016 NRG Research
NRG Initiation Report
NRG 4Q2015 Earnings Note
NRG 1Q2016 Earnings Note
NRG 2Q2016 Earnings Note
NRG 3Q2016 Earnings Note
NRG 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
NRG 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 NRG Research
NRG 1Q2017 Earnings Note
NRG Poised to transform itself from a 500lbs pig into a 100lbs ballerina
We like the Big, Bold strokes that NRG is using to repaint its canvas
NRG 2Q2017 Earnings: Decks are cleared, execution at forefront; waiting for results to rise-up
NRG 3Q2017: As economy rises-up from ashes, feels like NRG’s poised to take flight
NRG (02/07/2018): ~$9.8B asset sales cements NRG’s future; we like what NRG is doing
2018 NRG Research
NRG 4Q2017 Earnings (03/01/2018): NRG decides to waste some $100MM in shareholder capital
NRG 1Q2018 Earnings (05/03/2018): NRG poised to take off but we’d wait for end of $1B share buyback
Auvila Flash NRG (05/21/2018): NRG to issue $500MM of convertible senior notes due 2048 and conduct an accelerated share repurchase (ASR)
NRG 2Q2018 Earnings (8/2/2018): Blowout quarter, but we’re still waiting for $1B share buyback to end
2019 NRG Research
2020 NRG Research
Utilities
Black Hills Corp. (BKH)
2016 BKH Research
BKH Initiation Report
BKH 4Q2015 Earnings Note
BKH 1Q2016 Earnings Note
BKH’s withdrawal of cost of service gas application is not a surprise
BKH 2Q2016 Earnings Note
BKH 3Q2016 Earnings Note
BKH 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 BKH Research
BKH 1Q2017 Earnings Note
BKH 2Q2017 Earnings: Plans for cost of service gas falls thru but there’s a silver lining
BKH Future Bright; Capex Spending Accelerating; E&P Decision Coming
BKH 3Q2017: Little matters until we know how much capital is raised from E&P sale
BKH 4Q2017 Earnings (02/02/2018): E&P sale was very disappointing; downgrading forward expectations
2018 BKH Research
BKH 1Q2018 Earnings (05/04/2018): Weather induced performance doesn’t change our thesis
BKH 2Q2018 Earnings (8/7/2018): Guidance seems conservative; regulatory filings continue
2019 BKH Research
2020 BKH Research
Duke Energy (DUK)
2016 DUK Research
DUK Initiation Report
DUK 4Q2015 Earnings Note
DUK 2016 CFO Dinner
DUK 1Q2016 Earnings Note
DUK 2Q2016 Earnings Note
DUK: Control of SE Starts with Closing of PNG acquisition; Expect Far More on the Gas Side Including Another Acquisition within 2-3 Years
DUK sells its international assets for $2.4B
DUK 3Q2016 Earnings Note
DUK 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 DUK Research
DUK 1Q2017 Earnings Note
DUK 2Q2017 Earnings: DUK isn’t resting on its laurels but working hard to get next gold medal
DUK 3Q2017: Absent weather effects, DUK is performing to expectations
DUK 4Q2017 Earnings (2/20/2018): Presents good buying opportunity but after $2.0B equity issue
2018 DUK Research
DUK 2Q2018 Earnings (8/2/2018): Weak quarter doesn’t translate; good, steady growth story intact
DUK 1Q2018 Earnings (05/10/2018): DUK presents good buying opportunity but after $2.0B equity issue
2019 DUK Research
2020 DUK Research
Edison International (EIX)
2016 EIX Research
EIX Initiation Report
EIX 4Q2015 Earnings Note
EIX 1Q2016 Earnings Note
EIX: The Scope of the Reopening of the SONGS Settlement is Narrow
EIX 2Q2016 Earnings Note
EIX 3Q2016 Earnings Note
EIX 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 EIX Research
EIX: Edison Energy Services (EES): Molehill trying to become an anthill with potential to become a hillock; we like approach but endgame’s murky
EIX 1Q2017 Earnings Note
EIX 2Q2017 Earnings Note: EIX Quarter was disappointing but raising guidance in show of confidence
EIX 3Q2017: Strong 3Q17 performance lifts guidance; Focus on 2018 GRC
EIX 4Q2017 Earnings (02/22/2018): Focus on 2018 GRC; EIX doesn’t seem to be suffering from PCG ills
2018 EIX Research
Auvila Flash (EIX: 01/31/2018): Son Onfre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) Revised Settlement Agreement (RSA)
EIX 1Q2018 Earnings (05/01/2018): Focus on 2018 GRC; we don’t expect ungainly impact from wildfires
EIX 2Q2018 Earnings (7/26/2018): 2018 GRC still focus; wildfire liabilities not particular concern
2019 EIX Research
2020 EIX Research
PNM Resources (PNM)
2016 PNM Research
PNM Initiation Report
PNM 4Q2015 Earnings Note
PNM: Changing estimates to better account for rate case
PNM 1Q2016 Earnings Note
PNM 2Q2016 Earnings Note
PNM rate case decision may be postponed past legal timeline but it may be a good thing
PNM asks for rate decision instead of delay
PNM: Final PRC decision has pluses and minus, but also some weird things
PNM 3Q2016 Earnings Note
PNM Analyst Day (December 2016)
PNM 4Q2016 Earnings Quick Note
PNM 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 PNM Research
PNM 2017 IRP Quick Note
PNM 1Q2017 Earnings Note
PNM 2017 GRC Settlement Agreement
PNM Rate Case Settlement Takes an Unexpected but Fair Turn
PNM 2018 GRC Settlement Agreement is Fair-Minded; We Look for Approval
PNM 2Q2017 Earnings Note: PNM performed as expected; now it’s up to regulatory matters
PNM 3Q2017: PNM beat but keeping guidance unchanged; this is overly conservative
PNM 3Q2017: PNM beat but keeping guidance unchanged; this is overly conservative
PNM: Recommended Decision (RD) creates unwanted drama; likely leads to May 2017 settlement agreement becoming effective
PNM: 2018-2019 Guidance was in-line with expectations, but upside potential good
PNM: 2018 GRC Final Decision (FD) have gives and takes but could be better
PNM 4Q2017 Earnings (02/27/2018): Outlook improves but still conservative; 2H18 outperformance likely
2018 PNM Research
PNM: NMPRC’s periodic anti-shareholder decisions are unproductive but creates buying opportunity, in our opinion
PNM 1Q2018 Earnings (04/27/2018): 1Q2018 provides no additional insights and we continue to be positive
PNM 2Q2018 Earnings (7/31/2018): In-line with our expectations 2018/2019 AEPS guidance raised
PNM (8/1/2018): Updated estimates; no material changes to our thesis
2019 PNM Research
2020 PNM Research
PG&E Corp. (PCG)
2016 PCG Research
PCG Initiation Report
PCG 4Q2015 Earnings Note
PCG 1Q2016 Earnings Note
PCG 2015 GT&S Preliminary Decision
PCG 2015 GT&S Final Decision
PCG 2Q2016 Earnings Note
PCG Revised Estimates: July 29, 2017
PCG 3Q2016 Earnings Note
PCG 4Q2016 Earnings Note
2017 PCG Research
PCG 1Q2017 Earnings Note
PCG 2017 GRC Final Decision
PCG 2Q2017 Earnings Note: PCG’s Brilliantly boring quarter and strong operational execution bodes well
PCG 3Q2017: After great quarter is PCG bad luck or have bad karma or bad mgmt.?
PCG: ALJ PD on Diablo Canyon seems a bit capricious, so room for upside
FLASH PCG: PG&E Suspends common and preferred dividends due to wildfires
PCG 4Q2017 Earnings (02/09/2018): At some point PCG presents great buying opportunity, in our view
2018 PCG Research
PCG 1Q2018 Earnings (05/03/2018): Potential wildfire costs continue to pressure PCG but upside’s alluring
Auvila Flash PCG (05/29/2018): PCG looks to be on the hook for 2017 CA Wildfires
Auvila Flash PCG (06/11/2018): CalFire finds PG&E equipment involved in additional October 2017 fires; PG&E to take “significant” reserves
PCG 2Q2018 Earnings (7/26/2018): Wildfires continue to cloud and upside still alluring but months away
2019 PCG Research
2020 PCG Research
Economic
Only short-sighted, ignorant, uneducated or unthinking people would assume that share buybacks and dividends won’t help the economy!
Capitalism — i.e., “trickle-down” economics — works, and works very, very well!
Philosophical
Letter to FERC outlining our thoughts on how to redesign wholesale power market pricing mechanism
Investments
Share buybacks do not create value and the notion that a company can invest in its own stock is nonsense
Beginner Investors’ Guide to Good, Prudent, and Appropriate Investing
FAQ
Disclosures and Disclaimers
Privacy Policy
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2017 AES Research
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