LNG (11/8/2018): Cheniere highly undervalued relative to potential

Projects are … schedule and …
CEI identifies … that is expected to … by … XX%
Additional capacity at … said to be …
We like Cheniere’s looking at ways to deploy future FCF, but disappointed LNG is even thinking about share buybacks (SBB)
As expect global LNG markets are …, but in-line …
Performance and LNG market fundamentals make … for …

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BKH (11/6/2018): ST looks dim; MT-LT potential good; steady execution; CEO change

3QYTD … change our … . 20XX … minimally … . 20XX and 20XX … in-line w/our expectations
… and … done. … has to overcome XX% …
We believe BKH is likely … due to …
3Q18 results were … mostly …
Power segment … for $XXX
We adjusted our estimates for …, which … estimates also leading to our …
… we keep …
David Emery to retire YE2018, and Linn Evans to succeed. David remains executive chairman thru May 1, 2019. We expect …

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CNP (11/8/2018): Little else matters until Vectren closes 1Q19; ENBL internal spin done

Nothing matters much until Vectren Corp. (VVC) acquisition closes in …
… financing for VVC …
CNP 3Q18 was …; … $XXX-$XXX …
Bailey-to-Jones transmission ($XXXX) looks like … for mid-20XX …
Appears that … disposition would be through …, …
With VVC deal we believe that CNP has made itself into … for all the right reasons, in our view

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SRE (11/7/2018): As Cameron comes on-line LNG capex to accelerate; Stock to follow

Activist investors’ go home having been schooled
… global interest in LNG liquefaction (LNGL) …, … as expected. SRE continues …
As expected … likely … within …; …, in our opinion. No surprise given SRE must deploy …
Surprisingly signals … in other …
5-year Oncor capex through 20XX … to $XXX from $XXX
20XX … expected …
SRE looks to do … review in 2019; we look for SRE to …
We look for SRE to build a major …
… in 20XX AEPS … . We look for SRE to … . Expected to grow … XX%-XX% to match

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NRG (11/8/2018): Share buyback increases $0.5B to $1.5B: Bad; Operations: Great

Original $1B share buyback (SBB) is done with some 28.545MM shares bought at about $35/share. However, instead of ending SBB, NRG believes, analytically and logically wrongly, that it can invest its own stock, so decided to increase SBB by $0.5B. We’re very disappointed.
Otherwise, NRG’s …, …, … and … are …, in our opinion
… ST-Target/share to $XXX from $XXX
Asset sales are mostly over too with only … left to be completed by …, respectively
Otherwise … and … were sold for $XXX …. Total asset sales of $XXX as of … .
We like that NRG … in view of … and …. We look for NRG to continue to …, especially in … where it has …
Due to …, …, …, and …, our NIV/share … to $XXX from $XXX/share

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PNM (11/6/2018): Upside potential alluring; 2018 AEPS guidance raised

PNM reported AEPS of $XXX vs. our $XXX and $XXX consensus
2018E AEPS guidance … to $XXX-$XXX from $XXX-$XXX
PNM also updated its MT AEPS-guidance to XX%-XX% CAGR in AEPS from 20XX to 20XX, which we feel is …, but dividend CAGR likely …, in our opinion
We estimate CAGR in AEPS thru 20XX at some XX%
We … on PNM due to …, …, …, and …
TNMP GRC filed in XXXX; settlement was reached in XXXX with a $XXXMM increase with XX% ROE and XX% equity
Total capex estimate is almost $XXX for 20XX-20XX, but likely to be … given almost $XXX in …

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AES (11/6/2018): Upside clarity and momentum continues; strategy set; no more coal

AES confirmed its strategy: It wants to be global … energy company thru …. However, closet mission may be to be big player in …. We … this new initiative
… global economy … to provide …
Attaining … may be good strategy but reason for it may be dubious
… won’t change … structure
We continue to feel AEPS guidance through 2021 is …
New projects total some …GW on base of some …GW gross, over XX% increase; should … growth … XX%-XX% guidance
… NIV/share and ST-Target/share …, respectively

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PCG (11/5/2018): Wildfire crisis largely over; time to bottom fish; raise target to $69

We believe between … direction, management …, and …, we feel PCG is on cusp of …, given … investment needs due to …, … management, and … structure
While 3Q2018 AEPS was … at $XXX vs. our $XXX and consensus of $XXX, results are largely indicative of …, in our opinion
Therefore, with … treatment … seemingly being worked through …, we now feel … in the ST …
We believe that PCG is on … XX%-XX% (was XX%-XX%) CAGR in rate base through 20XX, which should result in similar …, in our view
Thus, we … ST-Target to $XXX/share from $XXX/share; … NIV is … to $XXX/share from $XXX/share due to … and …

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DUK (11/2/2018): Strong 3Q18 leads to higher guidance; attractive growth story intact

Reported 3Q18 AEPS of $XXX vs. our $XXX and consensus’ $XXX
… 2018 AEPS guidance to $XXX-$XXX from $XXX-$XXX
Continues to target XX%-XX% CAGR in AEPS and XX%-XX% total shareholder return thru 2022, which may be conservative, in our opinion
Macro-economic indicators … and demographics …; we look for these …, but DUK taking …
DUK continues to … to drive growth
We believe … is in the … by yearend …
We believe DUK presents … driven by … program, … performance, …, and …
… our ST-Target to $XXX/share from $XXX/share and NIV/share to $XXX from $XXX. Tweaked our forward-looking estimates to reflect 3Q2018 results

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EXC (11/1/2018): Higher guidance & hedge strategy change expectations confirmed

We feel EXC is well positioned to benefit from …, which would …, lifting … through both … and …
Given macro-environment and expected CAGR in utility AEPS at XX%-XX% and rate base growth at some XX% thru 20XX, valuation … EXC
EXC confirmed our suspicion its … strategy changed given … levels and … markets
EXC also raised lower end of guidance for 2018, something we expected
We continue to believe EXC’s endgame is to create … for …. Key to this strategy is to ensure …
The plan also requires EXC to continually … to ensure … with …
EXC reported $0.XX in AEPS vs. our $0.XX and $0.XX consensus
New dual-bid PJM capacity market design looks to be … for shareholders

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