We’re sad CPN got taken out at basement price; A sad last goodbye

CPN looks to be on track to be privatized by 1Q2018 end
CPN is getting taken out at $15.25/share, well below our NIV of some $48/share and ST-Target of $34/share
We would expect an IPO of CPN once the FERC restructures the wholesale power market pricing mechanism to not only properly incorporate the true marginal pricing of renewable generation, but also to properly value ALL ancillary services and reliability and resiliency features
CPN reported 3Q2017 AEPS of some $0.63 and $669MM in AEBITDA vs. our estimate of $0.61 in AEPS and $727MM in AEBITDA, while consensus estimated AEPS at about $0.65
As of this note, while we will continue to monitor the company, we will no longer be publishing on CPN unless the privatization is reversed or another bid is accepted

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As predicted CPN is going private, but at a disappointing price

Terms of the Deal:

CPN announced that it agreed to be acquired by Energy Capital Partners (ECP), and a consortium of investors led by Access Industries and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (together the “Buyers”) for $15.25/share in cash leading to an equity valuation of some $5.6B
The transaction has a 105 day “go-shop” period that ends 1 minutes past midnight of Friday, December 1, 2017
If CPN receives a superior bid then it may disband the current deal for a break-up fee of some $65MM, otherwise, should CPN choose to cancel the transaction, for whatever reason, then the break-up fee is $142MM.
The deal is expected to be consummated in 1Q2018.
The current management team is expected to remain in place.

Conclusion:

Disappointing selling price:
Potential alternate industry buyers:
Could another PE buyer offer more? Absolutely, in our opinion:
We believe a new bidder would emerge before December 1, 2017: Therefore, we must conclude that there ought to be another PE buyer looking at buying CPN, and we look for a competing bid to emerge before December 1, 2017, possibly in the range of some

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